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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."